Robinhood Revenue Per Contract Dips Despite Record Trading Volume
In the third quarter, Robinhood’s revenue per prediction market contract averaged 1.05 cents, a decline from the 1.15 cents recorded in the preceding quarter, according to an analysis by FM Intelligence. The number of contracts traded by customers increased by approximately 21% during this period, while the revenue generated from these contracts rose by 11%. Between July and September, event contracts yielded $173 million, surpassing the $120 million earned from cryptocurrency transactions and accounting for about 12% of Robinhood’s net revenue.
Price Changes and Trading Volume
The total number of contracts traded by customers in the quarter reached 16.4 billion, up from 13.6 billion in the previous quarter, with revenue increasing from $156 million in the second quarter. For context, the same division had generated 1.18 cents per contract in the first quarter. When rounded, the latest figures indicate a decline of between 7% and 9% from the second quarter.
During its October 27 earnings call, Robinhood’s management addressed the pricing adjustment made after acquiring an exchange from Susquehanna and rebranding it as Rothera. As Chief Financial Officer Shiv Verma explained, “We lowered pricing for customers when we bought Rothera.” Verma noted that this change did not impact Robinhood’s take rate and attributed the lighter rates to the types of contracts being traded. Non-sports contracts made up about 30% of activity in the quarter, up from 15% in the second, he said.
The ratio cannot tell those two forces apart. Each contract pays out at most $1, so one bought for a few cents counts the same as one bought near even money, and Robinhood reports how many changed hands but not the average price paid.
Rothera’s Contribution
The reported revenue figure is a combination of two business segments. Rothera, a joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna International Group, contributed $28 million to the $173 million in revenue, up from $17 million in the previous quarter, as stated in Robinhood’s earnings presentations. This means that the 1.05 cents per contract is a blend of exchange revenue and Robinhood’s own customer revenue, potentially overstating the revenue that a retail broker without an exchange could expect. Rothera’s share is expected to grow, with Verma stating that it will become Robinhood’s primary exchange, followed by Crypto.com, and that most trading volume will be routed through these two exchanges by early next year.
Robinhood’s involvement in the prediction markets has undergone significant changes. After launching event contracts in March 2025, the company drove more than half of Kalshi’s volume, as reported.com in January. In September, Robinhood acquired a stake in Crypto.com and its prediction markets unit OG, with the potential to earn up to 10% of Crypto.com’s and its affiliates’ revenue over three years in exchange for routing orders through the platform. Additionally, regulatory changes are impacting the product, with Robinhood ceasing to offer new sports contracts in Nevada, Michigan, and Ohio, and new taxes on prediction market revenue set to take effect in North Carolina and Kentucky on January 1.
The full FM Intelligence analysis provides further insights, including revenue per contract with and without Rothera, the implied sports share based on management’s comments, and a projected revenue range of $156 million to $198 million for the fourth quarter.
