ACI raises 2026 earnings forecast despite revenue drop
ACI Worldwide reported a 12% decline in third-quarter revenue to $427 million, though it raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA forecast to $550 million–$565 million, an increase from the prior range of $545 million–$560 million. The revision comes as most license renewals have shifted to the fourth quarter. For Q4, the company now projects revenue of $612 million–$642 million, marking a 27–33% increase over the $481.6 million recorded in the same period last year.
The fourth quarter would account for roughly a third of ACI’s full-year revenue target of $1.895 billion–$1.925 billion. Historically, Q4 has contributed 27–28% of annual revenue, but the upcoming surge would lift that share to 32–33%. The earnings concentration is even more pronounced: adjusted EBITDA guidance for the quarter, set at $257 million–$272 million, would represent 47–48% of the full-year range, up from 32–34% in previous years.
CEO Thomas Warsop attributed the outlook to “high visibility into scheduled renewals.” Several contracts, including a 10-year agreement signed in 2024 with Arab Financial Services, a bank-owned processor, secure long-term revenue. License revenue, however, fell 41% to $94.8 million due to timing, while recurring revenue, from SaaS and maintenance, rose 4% to $309 million.
New annual recurring revenue (ARR) bookings jumped 86% to $24 million, though trailing-12-month ARR declined 3% to $79 million. The Biller segment, which manages consumer bill payments, saw revenue grow 6% to $210 million. Meanwhile, the Payment Software unit, which serves banks and processors like Worldpay, experienced a 24% revenue drop to $216 million, with adjusted EBITDA margins slipping to 49% from 64%.
Despite the revenue decline, ACI’s third-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $97.5 million met its $90 million–$95 million target, though it fell 43% year-over-year. Net income dropped 64% to $32.5 million from $91.3 million. Over the first nine months, operating cash flow increased 26% to $254 million, while the company spent $157 million repurchasing 3.4 million shares at an average price of $45.69. As of September, ACI held $219 million in cash and carried $821 million in debt.
ACI is also accelerating its transition to Connetic, its newer cloud platform. During the quarter, the first client went live on the system, two additional clients signed on, and ACI acquired Cranium Ventures, a developer specializing in card-switching technology, to enhance Connetic’s capabilities. On October 27, ACI and Circle announced plans to pilot USDC stablecoin settlements through Connetic, beginning in Colombia. This follows Finastra’s August 2025 integration of USDC into its Global PAYplus hub, enabling banks to settle transactions in stablecoin while maintaining fiat payment instructions.
